by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-19
Wine Owners created proto-prices (first published in this JancisRobinson.com article) to help consumers identify value among en primeur offers. The prices support consumers when buying en primeur, by providing a consistent baseline from which to make purchasing decisions. Confidence in en primeur has been damaged in recent years, by over-inflated release prices and by fraudsters posing as brokers (always check the data, and always check the broker!), so we saw a clear need for a remedy. Each proto-price is the price at which Wine Owners believes a wine should be released in order to make its en primeur offer attractive and worthwhile for the consumer.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
Symbiotic EP
En Primeur must be symbiotic to continue thriving; it must benefit both chateau and consumer. Chateau benefits from smoother cash-flow and up-front guaranteed sales. Consumer benefits from a better price – significantly lower than buying two years later at general release. The symbiosis has lost balance slightly in recent years, with release prices rising apparently out of control. We created our proto-prices to help restore some of that balance, by creating informed consumers and collectors. We can't (and shouldn't try to) control the chateaux; they must release their new wine at the price they think best reflects the market, and their position within the market. What we can do, though, is give consumers the data they need to make informed purchasing decisions.
Not If But Which
Proto-prices address each wine individually. The decision is not if to buy wines en primeur, but which ones. If wine X doesn't look like good value, move to wine Y (no, that isn't an encoded hint to buy premier grand cru Sauternes!). And if none of your favourite wines look like good value this year, see below...
Back Vintages to the Future
Proto-prices support en primeur purchasing, and will hopefully help the tradition continue (on a stable path which benefits everyone involved). But if the new vintage of your preferred wine doesn't offer good value this year, adjust your gaze slightly. Caught up in the excitement of buying the new vintage en primeur, many of us forget to check availability and price of back-vintages. The Wine Owners Exchange is brimming with back-vintages you can buy instead. And hopefully, next year, you'll find the 2018 vintage at a more attractive en primeur price (the likelihood of which will significantly increase if enough consumers follow the buying advice in this article).
Proto-prices are based on a combination of solid wine market data and fine-grained knowledge. Last week in Bordeaux, one half of our team tasted tirelessly (well, almost tirelessly) through hundreds of 2017 Bordeaux wines, while at London HQ the other half was busy crunching market data. The combined result of these two efforts is the below table of 2017 proto-prices, featuring the seventy(ish) Bordeaux wines most commonly bought en primeur.
Happy en primeur purchasing, and...let the games begin!
WINE NAME | 2017 PROTO-PRICE | 2016 EP (IB) btl | % CHANGE 17 Vs. 16 | V-AVG * | Actual release price |
| Alter Ego de Palmer | £46.6 | £46.60 | 0% | £53.00 | £48.75 |
| Angelus | £232.05 | £298.00 | -22% | £238.00 | £280 |
| Ausone | £423.5 | £590.83 | -28% | £385.00 | |
| Beausejour Becot | £39.1 | £52.00 | -25% | £34.00 | £42 |
| Beausejour Duffau-Lagarrosse | £55.58 | £85.50 | -35% | £57.00 | £77 |
| Belair-Monange | £71.4 | £115.83 | -38% | £51.00 | £93 |
| Beychevelle | £56.3 | £56.30 | 0% | £68.00 | £52 |
| Calon-Segur | £71.5 | £78.30 | -9% | £65.00 | £61.50 |
| Canon | £65 | £90.80 | -28% | £50.00 | £67.50
|
| Canon La Gaffeliere | £44.85 | £64.17 | -30% | £46.00 | £54 |
| Cheval Blanc | £344.3 | £533.30 | -35% | £313.00 | |
| Clerc Milon | £49.16 | £49.16 | 0% | £52.00 | £52 |
| Clinet Pomerol | £49.73 | £72.00 | -31% | £51.00 | £57.50 |
| Clos Fourtet | £60.5 | £91.67 | -34% | £55.00 | £73 |
| Conseillante | £96 | £155.00 | -38% | £80.00 | £123 |
| Cos d'Estournel | £79 | £110.00 | -28% | £79.00 | £109 |
| de Valandraud | £87.75 | £129.15 | -32% | £90.00 | £100 |
| Domaine de Chevalier | £36.08 | £53.50 | -33% | £37.00 | £43 |
| Ducru-Beaucaillou | £92 | £140.00 | -34% | £92.00 | £124 |
| Duhart-Milon | £47.78 | £53.30 | -10% | £49.00 | £47 |
| Durfort Vivens | £34.65 | £40.33 | -14% | £33.00 | £38 |
| Figeac Saint Emilion | £113.4 | £155.00 | -27% | £81.00 | £123 |
| Gazin | £44.85 | £60.50 | -26% | £46.00 | £58.75 |
| Grand Puy Lacoste | £40 | £60.83 | -34% | £40.00 | £54 |
| Gruaud Larose | £40.95 | £51.67 | -21% | £42.00 | £52 |
| Haut Bailly | £52 | £87.50 | -41% | £52.00 | £74 |
| Haut-Brion | £310.2 | £400.00 | -22% | £282.00 | £355 |
| Haut-Brion Blanc | £583.33 | £583.33 | 0% | £557.00 | £615 |
| La Chapelle de La Mission Haut Brion | £48.4 | £63.33 | -24% | £44.00 | |
| La Fleur Petrus | £129.68 | £165.83 | -22% | £133.00 | £149 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion | £184.6 | £324.16 | -43% | £142.00 | £245 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion Blanc | £451.43 | £466.67 | -3% | £463.00 | £490 |
| La Mondotte | £126.75 | £199.00 | -36% | £130.00 | £119 |
| Lafite Rothschild | £398.72 | £491.66 | -19% | £498.40 | |
| Lafleur | £348.075 | £430.00 | -19% | £357.00 | £445 |
| Lagrange | £29.25 | £35.00 | -16% | £30.00 | £31 |
| L'Aile d'Argent Blanc | £54.17 | £54.17 | 0% | £53.00 | £56 |
| Lascombes | £47.78 | £56.67 | -16% | £49.00 | £52 |
| Le Petit Mouton Rothschild | £133.3 | £133.30 | 0% | £171.00 | £149 |
| Le Pin | £1574.63 | £2,083.00 | -24% | £1,615.00 | |
| L'Eglise-Clinet | £115.5 | £216.67 | -47% | £105.00 | |
| Leoville Barton | £48.75 | £62.50 | -22% | £50.00 | £54 |
| Leoville Las Cases | £113.3 | £175.00 | -35% | £103.00 | £148 |
| Leoville Poyferre | £49.73 | £67.00 | -26% | £51.00 | £55 |
| Les Carruades de Lafite | £125 | £125.00 | 0% | £215.00 | £135 |
| l'Evangile | £82.88 | £131.67 | -37% | £85.00 | £180 |
| L'If | £147.23 | £175.00 | -16% | £151.00 | |
| Lynch Bages | £74.1 | £95.80 | -23% | £76.00 | £74 |
| Malartic-Lagraviere | £33.6 | £40.00 | -16% | £28.00 | £33.30 |
| Malartic-Lagraviere Blanc | £41 | £41.00 | 0% | £32.00 | £42 |
| Margaux | £351.9 | £428.60 | -18% | £306.00 | £360 |
| Monbousquet | £33.15 | £36.67 | -10% | £34.00 | £38 |
| Montrose | £72.6 | £95.00 | -24% | £66.00 | £98 |
| Mouton Rothschild | £334.43 | £411.60 | -19% | £343.00 | £360 |
| Palmer Margaux | £171.6 | £236.60 | -27% | £156.00 | £195.75 |
| Pape Clement | £88.73 | £129.16 | -31% | £91.00 | £63.30 |
| Pape Clement Blanc | £98.33 | £98.33 | 0% | £68.00 | £100.45 |
| Pavie Macquin | £39.98 | £58.33 | -31% | £41.00 | £52 |
| Pavie Saint Emilion | £194.03 | £298.00 | -35% | £199.00 | £280 |
| Pavillon Blanc | £145.83 | £145.83 | 0% | £150.00 | £147 |
| Pavillon Rouge | £133.58 | £115.00 | 16% | £137.00 | £135 |
| Petrus | £1642.88 | £2,666.00 | -38% | £1,685.00 | |
| Pichon Baron | £79.2 | £115.60 | -31% | £72.00 | £98 |
| Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande | £84.7 | £122.50 | -31% | £77.00 | £93 |
| Pontet Canet | £68.4 | £111.67 | -39% | £57.00 | £82 |
| Quintus | £58.5 | £95.80 | -39% | £60.00 | £93 |
| Rauzan Segla | £46.8 | £61.30 | -24% | £48.00 | £54 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte | £50 | £78.00 | -36% | £50.00 | £69 |
| Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc | £73 | £73.00 | 0% | £57.00 | £83 |
| Troplong Mondot | £66 | £100.00 | -34% | £55.00 | £72 |
| Trotanoy | £119.93 | £193.33 | -38% | £123.00 | |
| Vieux Chateau Certan | £128.75 | £196.67 | -35% | £103.00 | |
| AVERAGE REDUCTION FOR A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN | | | -23% | | |
* V-AVG: avg current mkt value 04,06,08,12,14
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-13
Slightly weary after several busy days of tasting and driving, we were very happy to start today with a blissful treat; Jacques Thienpont hosting us to taste his 2017 Le Pin. Well-tailored and welcoming, Jacques greeted us with his son Georges, and took time to explain a little of the history behind the two wines we were about to taste: L'If and Le Pin. Both wines were stunning, and L'If - one of the newer additions to the Thienpont collection - shows a clear family resemblance to its legendary big brother. (It's upwards price trajectory does, too). What stood out most in both wines (beyond elegant fruit aromas and a cool-silk mouthfeel) were the feather light, super-ripe tannins. When we asked Jacques how he achieved these, he modestly gave all credit to First floor, saying “Fiona (Jacques' wife Fiona Morrison MW) can't believe how little I do to the wine”. Whatever the case, we have seen tannins like these at only one other winery (Cheval Blanc) in all of our tastings this week. ‘Extremely svelte, no hint of excess', say Nick's 2017 Le Pin tasting notes.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
The Right Wine for the Job
The Le Pin tasting highlighted a really basic wine investment tip - one which may easily be overlooked. In the excitement of buying a super-expensive wine like this, an investor may well neglect to factor how many years the wine will actually last. Expensive wine is not necessarily long-lived wine. The world's most expensive wines cost so much because they're excellent and sought-after, not because they take forever to mature. Jacques estimates that the Le Pin 2017 is a wine to drink within ten to fifteen years. That's great if you can get hold of it en primeur and turn it around within a few years, but that really isn't particularly long in investment terms. At the opposite end of the spectrum are two wines of similar stature: Chateau Haut-Brion and Chateau Latour. These two are completely different in style - both from Le Pin and from one another. They are chalk and cheese stylistically, but they are clearly similar in how long-lived they are. The longer the maturation period, the more time there is for speculation and anticipation, and the more time you have to find that well-heeled and motivated buyer.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
En Primeur Alive and Kicking
From up-close here in Bordeaux, En Primeur as a buying mechanism (with all its associated practices and processes) seems alive and well. The tasting rooms here are packed and buzzing, all the traditional conversations are happening (again), and tannin-battered tongues are wagging as always. Hopefully this energy will be complemented by sensible release prices in a few weeks' time, and by a decent level of commitment from consumers. And investors...
Watch this space in coming weeks for our thoughts on hot buys, once the producers begin to announce their prices.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-12
A late return tonight (past midnight) and a long day, waking at 05:00. But there's still gas left in the tank, so to speak. Over the course of the day we gathered thoughts in advance for the below.
Saint-Julien Delivers
JR has been looking for patterns all week - some form of shape around which to build recommendations for wise en primeur purchases. Until this afternoon we failed to find anything solid, but then...Saint-Julien delivered. At the UGC (Union des Grands Crus) Saint-Julien tasting hosted by Chateau Beychevelle at its modern-looking new winery, we noticed a clear consistency in the wines; there wasn't a dud among them. Well, maybe there was one, but we don't need to talk about that as it wasn't really that bad. Either way, this was the first appellation we'd seen where quality was reliably high in these en primeur tastings. Everywhere else had required dedicated tasting to work out what was hot and what was not. So thank you Saint-Julien, and bravo!
Bright Whites
Of course, as soon as this pattern had been spotted, we remembered another that we wanted to talk about yesterday(but ran out of time). It's the incredible purity to the whites this year, all around Bordeaux - not just in Graves where we were today (starting with Haut-Brion, Pape Clement and Smith Haut-Lafitte) but everywhere. Lovely balanced wines great concentration and acidity, and pithy, chalky tannins. Our tasting notes are full of descriptors like kaffir lime leaves, sweet sage, gooseberry, sherbet and candied lemon. Even lemon verbena made it in there. 2017 looks like a really great year for Bordeaux whites.
©Nick Martin / Wine Owners
The Cold Shoulder
Frost - the running theme of conversations all around Bordeaux this week - was as much as issue in Graves as it was in the right bank. The frost pattern here in the Graves seems to have been much more black and white than over in Saint-Emilion and Pomerol. For some producers, there is a glittering silver lining to this rather painful situation, in that they adapted to it by significantly changing their blend and have come out smiling. Larrivet Haut-Brion is a gleaming example of this; the team there turned their blend around to use three times the usual amount of Cabernet Franc, and one third the amount of Merlot (which got severely hit by the frost). Les Carmes de Haut Brion is a similar story, and a similar success.
We have been focusing a lot on the frost topic (both here in the blog, and in our conversations with producers), but in fact a key point we'd like to make is that the frost is not something that consumers and investors should really focus on. What really matters, ultimately, is what each of the producers has managed to create. There are no strong patterns that consumers can reliably follow with regard to the frost.
Softly Softly Catchy Monkey
After a morning on the right bank, we returned to the Medoc, to the UGC tasting at Lafon Rochet. There, Basil Tesseron told us that 2017 was a vintage where it was extremely important not to over-extract, not being a super-ripe or sunny vintage. Over-extraction would just lead to mean, green bitter compounds leaching into the wine. This echoed a sentiment raised earlier in the day at Smith Haut-Lafitte, where the team did 4 pigeages per day, but no pumperovers, in order to keep the winemaking relatively gentle. 2017 was a year to be patient for picking and gentle in the winery.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
Less (Wine) Does Not Necessarily Mean More (Money)
Despite indications given by some chateaux that smaller harvests will mean higher release prices, we see no justification for this. Traditionally, in vintages which are not 'stellar' -particularly those which followed relatively good vintages (as 2016 was) vintages, prices have tended to drop or remain roughly stable. Even in 2006 prices didn't significantly rise; they stayed roughly the same as 2005 even though the vintage clearly wasn't quite as impressive.
Tomorrow is a final look at the top producers we've not yet visited, all around the region. Lots of driving, between Le Pin, Angelus, La Conseillante, Eglise-Clinet and then back over the river to Latour, Leoville Barton and Palmer. Here's hoping for good driving conditions!
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-11
Reflecting on day two, with the heady aromas of Pavie and co still flickering around our mouths, and a hard day's tasting behind us, we searched for patterns and rules. But, on reflection, there really is no rule that we can suggest.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
An Unexpected Guest
Cabernet Sauvignon made an larger-than-usual appearance in several top wines we tried today, most noticeably Vieux Chateau Certan and Cheval Blanc. Typically, VCC contains just 1% Cabernet Sauvignon, but in 2017 that was increased to 5%. Although there was no overt Cabernet Sauvignon aroma profile in the wine, its freshness and focus almost certainly added to the completeness of the mouthfeel. Cheval Blanc is a quite different story; 2017 is the first vintage in many years that the wine will contain Cabernet Sauvignon.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
Shining Examples of Franc
Cabernet Franc is absolutely not in the dog house in 2017, despite the general impression that it had a tough vintage. Three stand-out wines from today's line-up contained substantial levels of Cabernet Franc; Chateau Troplong- Mondot, Chateau Canon and Cheval Blanc's Petit Cheval. The former pair included around 25% Cab Franc, and Le Petit Cheval put on a blinding performance with a relatively massive 48%. So, while the variety may have had a very tough vintage in some parts of the right bank, it is showing admirably in others.
Frost Patterns
There is a lot of emphasis this week on The Frost (27th and 28th April 2017), and rightly so; it was absolutely devastating from some producers, and has had clear repercussions in their 2017 wines. But not all vineyards were affected, and some seem to have escaped entirely unscathed. Chateau Canon, for example, was almost completely untouched by frost. The wines are suitably excellent - refined, bright, tight and focused. Vieux Chateau Certan - our second tasting of the day - is another example of a winery seemingly undaunted by the frost. It tasted magnificent, silky and balanced this morning, all those tannins ago. But many of those right bank producers who did experience frost have found ways to produce good, and even excellent wines. Some adjusted the blend of grapes they use. Soutard is a fantastic and successful example of this; their 2017 is very good, and will be a great value buy when released. Their 2017 blend was 90% Merlot (significantly higher than the 65% normally used), with Cabernet Franc, Cab Sauvignon and Malbec making up the remaining 10%.
Chateau Gazin was untouched by frost, but the team there nonetheless felt that their Cab Franc wasn't quite up to scratch. They took the decision to boost their blend up to a fat 95% Merlot, resulting in a 2017 grand vin with a silky mouthfeel, great balance, and an enticing touch of kirsch dancing around on the nose.
On the left bank yesterday, the story was quite different. The frost was relatively indiscriminate there, affecting most vineyards to some extent. But here in the right bank, the hillier landscape allowed the freezing air to drain away from some places...and to gather catastrophically in others. Thus the distribution of frost damage was much more patchy here. Clay-based areas and lower-lying sites were obviously hit very hard by the frost. We do feel for those producers hit hardest - it was clearly not an easy vintage for them, and they face challenges ahead when the wines are released to market.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
So the rule really is that there is no rule here. Which makes exhaustive primeurs tasting all the more valuable. Tomorrow (Wednesday) we head to Graves and Pessac-Leognon in the morning, to taste the Haut-Brion wines, and then on to Pape Clement and Malartic Lagraviere. We shall see if, and to what extent, the gravel soils helped mitigate the frost impact here...
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-10
Starting early, we hit the Monday-morning Bordeaux commuter congestion armed with laptops, phones and an excellent pain au chocolat. Day one launched us headlong into the Medoc grand crus, starting at Lafite, then moving through Mouton, Cos d'Estournel, Pontet-Canet, Calon-Segur, Montrose, finishing at Chateau Margaux.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
Tongues still tingling from untamed tannins, we are now reviewing the day from the wine-free environs of our rented loft- conversion apartment. There is blue sky peeping through the skylights.
Three main themes emerged from today's en primeur 2017 tastings:
Cabernet Cornucopia
The most obvious pattern is that 2017 was clearly a Cabernet vintage in Pauillac and Saint-Estephe. Almost all of the wines we tried have a higher proportion of Cabernet Sauvignon in their blends than in 2016. The particular weather patterns of the 2017 growing season meant that Merlot was tricker in 2017, and Cabernet performed well. Lafite, Montrose and Calon-Segur particularly exemplified this - their wines glowing from the healthy Cabernet. The Calon tasting demonstrated this most clearly; comparing side-by-side the Marquis de Calon and the Calon-Segur (Cabernet was particularly higher in the latter) it became clear how a higher percentage of Cabernet has worked wonders in 2017. The Calon is fresher, brighter and more defined than the Marquis, has more-focused acidity, and will be by far the longer-lived wine.
A noteworthy exception to this pattern is the grand vin at Chateau Margaux, where the team are obviously very happy with their Merlot this year. In fact, their Merlot was apparently so good that it was used worthy of a greater dose in the grand vin this year - a move which brought production levels of the grand vin up to almost 2015 levels (impressive from the smaller 2017 vintage). This is an unusual moment of glory for Merlot, which is typically the ‘insurance policy' grape.
House Styles
One obvious pattern showing in day one's tastings was house styles. These are very much in evidence in 2017, and most obvious at the Mouton stable, where d'Armailhac, Petit Mouton, Mouton and Aile d'Argent all shared the house's exuberent, borderline-exotic richesse. This continues right down to the house's entry-level Baronarques brand from Limoux, which we were also warmly invited to taste. The four Cos d'Estournel wines also had a family feel about them, being clean, bright and focused, without being overly ‘new world'. The pattern was most pleasing, perhaps, at Montrose, where both the Dame de Montrose and the grand vin showed brilliantly, and shared a distinctive style; cool, fresh wines (yes, high Cabernet content) with lots of tightly wound potential, and a whiff of something herbal (along the lies of nettles and lavender) marking them out from the crowd.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
Past and present
References to the past, as a means of promoting the present, were frequent in the presentations today.
Lafite's new director, Jean-Guillaume Prats (previously of Cos d'Estournel), pointed to technology as being significant in the quality of this 2017 vintage. Thirty years ago, he said, given the same vintage conditions, it would have been 'very tricky' to make a wine of such high quality as they have managed this vintage with both the Carruades and grand vin. Of course, his job is to say such things, but his demeanour was very real, honest and open. And the wines spoke for themselves; the Lafite was its usual elegant, impressive self even at this early stage in its life.
Also illustrating progress by pointing to the past was Thibault Pontalier of Chateau Margaux, who highlighted that the blend of Pavillon Rouge today is exactly the blend of the grand vin thirty years ago. A strong part of his reasoning for this was the ever- increasing quality of Cabernet Sauvignon that Margaux is able to produce, thanks to investment in technique and technology. This was in evidence for more than just the reds, however; Margaux's stunning Pavillon Blanc 2017 ended today with a refreshing flourish of beautifully concentrated, linear Sauvignon.
©Jonathan Reeve / Wine Owners
Comparing 2017 with 2016, the majority of wines from day one appear to be a notch less intense and refined than 2016. We're interested to see if this continues on the right bank.
Tomorrow we visit Nenin, Vieux Chateau Certan, Cheval Blanc, Gazin, La Couspade, Canon and Pavie. Watch this space tomorrow, for reflections on the right bank.
by Wine Owners
Posted on 2018-04-04
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram next week as our team will be sharing their first impression and analysis on the new vintage live from le Bordelais.
Here's a taste of our week:
Monday
|
Tuesday
|
Wednesday
|
Thursday
|
Lafite
Mouton
Cos d’Estournel
Pontet Canet
Calon Segur
Montrose
Margaux
|
Nenin
VCC
Cheval Blanc
Château de Ferrand
Gazin
La Couspaude
Canon
Pavie
|
Haut Brion
Pape Clément
Malartic Lagravière
Smith Haut Laffite
Haut Bailly
Lafon-Rochet
Beychevelle
Siran
Lagrange
|
Le Pin
La Conseillante
Figeac
Eglise Clinet
Angelus
Latour
Palmer
Ulysse Cazabonne
Leoville Barton
|
